Wednesday, 26 October 2011

EU Economic Summit – 26 Oct 2011

EU Economic Summit is going all day. And it is most important event for today. Germany’s parliament is being called on to get behind Chancellor Angela Merkel before she attends today’s critical European summit in Brussels.

Merkel wants the Bundestag to agree to boost the euro zone’s 440-billion-euro European Financial Stability Fund without pouring more taxpayers’ money into it.
A strong showing vote will give her a mandate to negotiate a deal with other leaders aimed at delivering a range of measures to stop the debt crisis from spiralling.
CDU parliamentary floor leader, Volker Kauder said:
“It would be very nice if a large majority in the German Bundestag could give support to the German government for the negotiations taking place in Brussels.”
In general her EU colleagues are looking for agreement on:
The banks taking bigger losses on the money they have loaned to Greece.
A top-up to those banks’ reserves with the help of the public sector.
A beefing up of the EFSF bailout fund and getting the Italian economy back on track.
But at the end of the day will the gathering live up to its title as the summit that rescued the euro?
If we have positive outcome from today's meeting we will for sure see stocks rally and break out long.  If however there is negative news, get ready for new lows.  Keep note of the break out long and short figures below.

FTSE     25 Oct 2011    Pivot Points, Fib Pivots and Camarilla
R35,686.50Fib R35,629.21Brk Out Long5,585.23
R25,630.30Fib R25,589.03Short5,555.37
R15,577.90Fib R15,562.97HL25,545.41
Pivot5,521.70Pivot5,521.70HL15,535.46
S15,469.30Fib S15,480.43LL15,515.55
S25,413.10Fib S25,454.37LL25,505.59
S35,360.70Fib S35,414.19Long5,495.64
    Brk Out Short5,465.77
SPC     25 Oct 2011    Pivot Points, Fib Pivots and Camarilla
R31,273.96Fib R31,263.80Brk Out Long1,244.12
R21,264.08Fib R21,253.66Short1,236.59
R11,246.56Fib R11,247.09HL21,234.07
Pivot1,236.68Pivot1,236.68HL11,231.56
S11,219.16Fib S11,226.26LL11,226.54
S21,209.28Fib S21,219.69LL21,224.03
S31,191.76Fib S31,209.55Long1,221.52
    Brk Out Short1,213.98

Tuesday, 25 October 2011

Eurozone crisis is dragging UK into double-dip recession


The economy might already be shrinking because of the crisis in the eurozone, one of the Bank of England’s leading experts has warned.

Martin Weale – who sits on the Monetary Policy Committee which sets interest rates – said that the economy is at high risk of contracting in the final quarter of 2011 owing to anxiety about the single currency bloc.
If his prediction is correct, the  country would be on the verge of a  double-dip recession.
‘Looking at the economy at the moment, I think the problems of the euro area and the knock-on consequences for our banks, for business confidence, for the way consumers feel about things are likely to prove important,’ he said.
‘I certainly do think the underlying  rate of growth of the economy is weak  now and I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if we were to see output contract in  the fourth quarter.’ 

A transcript of the October MPC meeting reveals that  the nine-person group predicted growth in the last three months of the year would be ‘close to zero’.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2053075/Eurozone-crisis-dragging-UK-double-dip-recession-warns-Bank-England-expert.html#ixzz1bmukcoeG

Tuesday, 18 October 2011

United States Fed's Bernanke Speech 18th October 2011


U.S. stocks are poised to extend Monday's slide today, thanks to uninspiring gross domestic product (GDP) data out of China and a few lackluster big-cap earnings reports. Among the notable pre-market decliners are blue chips IBM Corp. (IBM) and Bank of America (BAC), which are both set to start the session in the red. Meanwhile, lingering concerns about the fiscal health of Europe have also fueled the bears ahead of the bell, with Moody's warning that France's triple-A credit rating could be in danger. Against this pessimistic backdrop -- and ahead of an afternoon speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (6.15pm UK TIME) -- the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is flirting with a second straight triple-digit drop.
Dow, S&P and Nasdaq futures

1190 is a key support level which has been hit a few times, perhaps this is the level if broken will send the spx 500 down to 1150.

Good luck trading.

Multi-Millionaire Traders Share Their Thoughts On Trading


“The key is consistency and discipline,” says Richard Dennis who grew $400 into $200,000,000.
“The key is consistency and discipline.  I don’t think anybody winds up making money in this business because they started out lucky.”
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“Always use stops” recommends Michael Marcus who turned $30,000 into $80,000,000.
“Always use stops.  I mean actually put them in, because that commits you to get out at a certain point … to be a competent trader and make money is a skill you can learn.”


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Tuesday, 11 October 2011

FED MINUTES - FOMC Minutes - 11-10-2011


TODAY'S FED MINUTES - WILL THIS BRING ABOUT ANOTHER MARKET SLUMP?
The long moves over the last week were triggered entirely by the optimism of Europeans who hope that their policymakers would finally get their acts together and deliver on their promises to stabilize the region. Considering how much of the concern of central bankers around the world centers on the uncertainties in Europe, we are not surprised that investors have reacted so positively to the prospect of Germany and France reaching a deal by the end of the month.   Given the large amount of short euro positions in the market, we still attribute much of the move to short covering.  With that in mind however, if Europe truly resolves its problems and the deal sketched out by Germany and France effectively stabilize the market, then a rate cut by the ECB may not be needed, leaving the U.S. dollar a less desired currency because the sluggish pace of U.S. growth could still necessitate more stimulus from the central bank.
Later today the FOMC minutes will shed light on how close the Federal Reserve is to initiating QE3.   The last time the central bank met, they took the rare step of twisting the yield curve by selling short term Treasuries and purchasing longer term ones.  This was exactly what the market had anticipated at the time but meeting expectations was not enough.  The Fed did the minimum of what investors expected and they were punished for it.   Last week, Bernanke stepped out and admitted that that Operation Twist had only a modest impact on the market.   Traders will be looking at the minutes to see how close the central bank was to implementing QE3.   If they discussed it heartily, then the prospect of more stimulus next month is still realistic.   If there was a lot of debate about the need for any stimulus at all and the only reason why they chose Operation Twist was to give the market something instead of nothing, it would be a major disappointment that could lead to a renewed rally in the greenback.   
At the time, there was absolutely no mention of additional asset purchases in the FOMC statement and by not mentioning QE3, it certainly appears that the central bank could be saving their few remaining bullets in case the volatility in the financial markets intensifies or the U.S. economy falls into recession


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