Monday, 21 November 2011

Black Friday - The day after Thanksgiving Day

What Does Black Friday Mean?
1. A day of stock market catastrophe. Originally, September 24, 1869, was deemed Black Friday. The crash was sparked by gold speculators, including Jay Gould and James Fist, who attempted to corner the gold market. The attempt failed and the gold market collapsed, causing the stock market to plummet.

2. The day after Thanksgiving in the United States. Retailers generally see an upward spike in sales and consider this to be the start of the holiday shopping season. It's common for retailers to offer special promotions and to open early to draw in customers.

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Interesting to note that with respect to Thanksgiving Day week where the S&P 500 was up month-to-date on close of Friday prior to Thanksgiving
  • the S&P 500 showed a positive weekly performance on 27 out of the last 37 occurrences (or 72.97% of the time) ;
  • did not post a single lower close below option expiration’s close on 15 out of the last 37 occurrences ; and finally
  • posted a weekly loss greater than -1.0% on only 3 occurrences (max. loss -1.56%), but a weekly gain greater than +1.0% on 18 occurrences.
From a statistical and historical point of view, there is a good chance (and a significantly above-average expectancy as well) that the market will probably continue its up-move during Thanksgiving Day week.

Wednesday, 2 November 2011


Trading CAM levels really is simple.  You just need to have patience and wait for the signals.  The best are the breakout long/short moves - these generally set the trend for the trading session ahead.

If the H3 (Short) level is hit, the idea is that you go SHORT (against the previous trend) in the expectation that the market is about to reverse, with a stoploss point somewhere between the H3 and H4 levels (if it his H4 (Breakout), chances are it's going to breakout upwards, so you want your stop to be before that!).

The opposite is true for L3 (Long).  These levels are great and have a history of success as long as you have patience to wait for them...   Below are today's ftse and spx levels.

Good luck trading.

SPX 500 - US 500
^GSPC     1 Nov 2011     End of Day Data

^GSPC     1 Nov 2011    Pivot Points, Fib Pivots and Camarilla
R31,276.63Fib R31,263.46Brk Out Long1,237.85
R21,263.81Fib R21,250.29Short1,228.06
R11,241.05Fib R11,241.75HL21,224.80
S11,205.47Fib S11,214.71LL11,215.02
S21,192.65Fib S21,206.17LL21,211.76
S31,169.89Fib S31,193.01Long1,208.50
Brk Out Short1,198.71

FTSE - UK 100
^FTSE     1 Nov 2011     End of Day Data

^FTSE     1 Nov 2011    Pivot Points, Fib Pivots and Camarilla
R35,736.87Fib R35,638.48Brk Out Long5,534.79
R25,640.53Fib R25,562.33Short5,478.20
R15,531.07Fib R15,512.94HL25,459.33
S15,325.27Fib S15,356.53LL15,402.74
S25,228.93Fib S25,307.14LL25,383.87
S35,119.47Fib S35,230.99Long5,365.01
Brk Out Short5,308.41


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