Monday, 21 November 2011

Black Friday - The day after Thanksgiving Day

What Does Black Friday Mean?
1. A day of stock market catastrophe. Originally, September 24, 1869, was deemed Black Friday. The crash was sparked by gold speculators, including Jay Gould and James Fist, who attempted to corner the gold market. The attempt failed and the gold market collapsed, causing the stock market to plummet.

2. The day after Thanksgiving in the United States. Retailers generally see an upward spike in sales and consider this to be the start of the holiday shopping season. It's common for retailers to offer special promotions and to open early to draw in customers.

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Interesting to note that with respect to Thanksgiving Day week where the S&P 500 was up month-to-date on close of Friday prior to Thanksgiving
  • the S&P 500 showed a positive weekly performance on 27 out of the last 37 occurrences (or 72.97% of the time) ;
  • did not post a single lower close below option expiration’s close on 15 out of the last 37 occurrences ; and finally
  • posted a weekly loss greater than -1.0% on only 3 occurrences (max. loss -1.56%), but a weekly gain greater than +1.0% on 18 occurrences.
From a statistical and historical point of view, there is a good chance (and a significantly above-average expectancy as well) that the market will probably continue its up-move during Thanksgiving Day week.

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