Friday, 29 June 2012

S&P/ASX 200 +1.5%, Rally On EU Comments

MARKET TALK: World indices rally following positive comments from EU Commissioner Herman Van Rompuy; the index is currently up 1.5% at 4105. Van Rompuy says the ESM and EFSF funds will be used flexibly and an ESM-funded loan to Spanish banks won't have senior creditor status--that will boost confidence in peripheral European bond markets. Additionally, the EU's Barroso says direct bank recapitialization will be possible under very strict conditions--this could lead to a more streamlined and faster way of dealing with bank recapitalization.

Question is, how long do you think the rally will continue for?

Monday, 28 May 2012

What Is Social Trading?

Social trading is the newest, most exciting and most rewarding way for you to get access to the financial markets. By linking traders from all over the world into one big network, social trading empowers traders to use each other’s skills to trade smarter together, and that collective wisdom can take your trading to a level you never thought possible before.

Social TradingAs the world’s largest online financial trading community, nobody can offer your trading more of a social boost than eToro. And since we’re convinced that social trading is the way to the future of financial investment, we are constantly developing new tools to harness the unlimited possibilities of trading as a community. With such ground breaking features asCopyTrader, GuruFinder,, and much more to come, we are making it easier than ever for you to monetize not just your own potential, but that of your fellow traders!

So how does social trading work?

eToro’s social trading network, the eToro OpenBook, works on several levels, enabling you to utilize social trading as it suits you. Whatever your financial investment goals or style, social trading is sure to enrich your trading experience.
The most basic function of the social trading network is to bring you live feeds of trading activity. That means that you’re exposed to what you’re fellow traders are doing in the financial market at any given time. How does that benefit you? Information is power, and staying informed about what other traders are doing gives you valuable insight into market trends, innovative strategies and trading ideas.
Naturally, you would probably be more interested in looking at certain traders’ market activity more than others’. You can do so by choosing to “Follow” the traders that you find more interesting. You can also get more information on each trader and even get in touch with them in person through their personal profiles. If you’re not sure which traders you want to follow, use the OpenBook rankings or the “Guru Finder” to search the network according to your preferences.
The most direct way to benefit from social trading is to copy. There are two ways for you to copy trades using the eToro OpenBook. If you spot a particularly promising trade in the live trading feeds or in a trader’s personal profile you can quickly open the same trade by clicking on “Copy”. However, if you spot a trader who’s consistently profitable it’s much easier to use the “CopyTrader” feature to start copying their trades automatically. In fact you can even dedicate your entire account to recruiting traders to trade for you through the CopyTrader, building what we call a “people-based” portfolio!

What can social trading do for me?

However experienced you are as a trader, and however you like to interact with others, our social trading community is rich with benefits and opportunities.

Beginner Traders

  • Pick out your trading gurus – follow their trades, learn from their trading method and copy their trades automatically
  • Track the ongoing performance of any trader through a series of simple tools and keep easily informed on everything they’re doing
  • Interact with other traders to get useful tips and advice
  • Keep your finger on investor sentiment

Experienced Traders (Gurus)

  • Recruit followers via OpenBook and get recognized for your skill
  • See how other hotshots trade, and spot more of the right opportunities as they happen
  • Join the Guru program and earn commissions for your copiers
  • Manage your own brand through your own website
  • Contribute guest posts to the eToro Blog to gain even more followers

Join the social trading revolution today!

Tuesday, 27 March 2012

SPX 500 heading into the 1,420 to 1,440 resistance zone

Europe is moving into a recession, which is being exacerbated by austerity measures. Data came out Thursday that the PMI in several European countries and China contracted. Ireland missed growth targets, and central banks around the world continue to print unprecedented levels of fiat currency as if printing money and creating more debt will solve a debt problem.

All of these issues are concerns, but ultimately price is the final arbiter in the world of flickering ticks. From these eyes there are two possible outcomes for the price action in the S&P 500. The first outcome, which I believe is more likely, is a test of the 2011 highs that results in a snap-back rally that takes us deeper into the 1,420 to 1,440 resistance zone. The chart below demonstrates the bullish potential outcome.

SPX Bullish Outcome

Price action at some point will back-test the 2011 highs, and the reaction at that point will be critical. Generally speaking, price action does not break a key support or resistance level on the first attempt. Usually the second or third attempt will result in a break of a key support / resistance level.

In this case, a test in coming days would likely result in a bounce and reversion to the previous trend. A possible, albeit unlikely outcome would be a break below the 2011 support zone, which would then come close to triggering a trend change. The daily chart below demonstrates the bearish potential outcome.

SPX Bearish Outcome

Read more:

Wednesday, 29 February 2012

European Monetary Union - ECB LTRO auction @ 529.53B

A regular open market operation executed by the Eurosystem in the form of reverse transactions. Such operations are carried out through a monthly standard tender and normally have a maturity of three months. The monthly longer-term refinancing operations (LTRO) aim to provide liquidity to the financial sector.

Banking stocks posted the strongest gains, as investors added exposure to the sector ahead of the LTRO by the ECB but on the results we saw the stocks and euro take a dip.

Monday, 27 February 2012

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Wednesday, 15 February 2012

UK Inflation drops to lowest since November 2010

The decline to 3.6 percent -- its lowest annual rate in more than a year -- will reassure the BoE as it prepares to publish an update to its quarterly economic forecasts on Wednesday.

But it will not spare bank governor Mervyn King from having to write a public letter explaining why inflation has remained well above target for the past two years.
The Office for National Statistics said consumer price inflation fell from 4.2 percent in December, in line with economists' forecasts and extending a marked drop from September's three-year peak of 5.2 percent.
Economists reckon the central bank will continue to predict that CPI will fall below its 2 percent target by the end of 2012, and remain below target in two years' time, as weak growth and an end to energy price rises take effect.
Lower inflation may also lift consumer demand, which has been a major drag on Britain's sluggish economy, at a time when there are also major headwinds from the euro zone debt crisis and the government's austerity programme.
Those factors were reflected in a decision by credit agency Moody's to put the nation's prized triple-A rating on a negative outlook, though Chancellor George Osborne said Britain would not stray from its debt-cutting measures.
January's inflation reading - the lowest since November 2010 - is in line with BoE forecasts for an average of just over 3.4 percent in the first three months of 2012.
"Consumer price inflation should fall appreciably further in February, reflecting the fact that a number of retailers and companies delayed passing on the VAT hike at the start of 2011, and also due to utility providers trimming energy prices," said IHS Global Insight economist Howard Archer.
Bank governor King is likely to focus on the weak economy and the fading of one-off upward pressures on inflation when he publishes the quarterly letter to Osborne later on Tuesday explaining why CPI is above target.
Osborne's department welcomed the fall in inflation as "good news for family budgets".
Despite the above-target inflation, the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee last week pressed ahead with another 50 billion pounds of quantitative easing via gilt purchases over the next three months, in order to boost faltering growth.
If the sharp fall in inflation does not continue, this may be the last bout of QE. Some policymakers expressed concerns last year about whether inflation would fall as fast as forecast once the downward effect of one-off factors faded.

Tuesday, 7 February 2012

15:00 GMT United States Fed's Bernanke testifies

The Fed Governor Ben Shalom Bernanke gives a press conference as to how the Fed observes the current U.S. economy and the value of USD. His comments may influence the volatility of USD and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. His hawkish view is considered as positive, or bullish for the USD, whereas his dovish view is considered as negative, or bearish for the Dollar.

Chairman Ben Bernanke has called the economy "frustratingly slow." On Tuesday, Congress will find out whether he still thinks so, even after Friday's news that hiring surged in January and unemployment reached a three-year low.

Don't expect a radical new outlook on the economy.

When Bernanke testifies to the Senate Banking Committee, economists expect no shifts in the Fed's efforts to bolster the recovery. They say Bernanke's tone might be slightly more upbeat than when he spoke Thursday to House members. But they expect him to reiterate the Fed's plan to keep a key interest rate at a record low near zero until at least late 2014.

On Friday, the government said employers added 243,000 jobs in January, far more than expected. And unemployment fell for a fifth straight month, to 8.3 percent. Still, 8.3 percent is still painfully high. Nearly 13 million people remain unemployed.

"I expect that Bernanke will take note of the good news that the economy is healing while saying that the bad news is that it is healing slowly," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight.
Bernanke will likely keep all the Fed's option open, in part because of threats to the U.S. economy from abroad. They include Europe's debt crisis and rising tensions with Iran that could disrupt global oil supplies.

Moreover, Congress is still debating whether to extend a Social Security tax cut that benefits 160 million Americans and is due to expire at the end of this month.

"The uncertainty level right now is just so high," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial. "The Fed is going to be very cautious in changing its stance."

Read more:

Thursday, 2 February 2012

Is this the end of the strong rally? I think so!

After a strong rally since mid-December, has the bull hit the wall?
The S&P has rallied more than 90 points for a better than 7.5% gain, the Dow Jones Industrials jumped 900 points, and most impressively, the Nasdaq has gained 10.5%.
But now, the chances are excellent that the bull has hit the wall, at least for awhile.
Here's why we think we will start to see a significant sell off:
Fundamentals are deteriorating.
1. Europe remains a problem. If Greece is solved, which would be a miracle, Portugal is next with a 10-year bond yield of 15.2% which is clearly unsustainable. The only reason it isn't higher is because of the aggressive intervention of European Central Bank Chief "Super Mario" Draghi, who so far has managed to avoid a most serious credit crunch in Europe. Last weekend, Germany made proposals for the European Union to basically annex Greece and its economy which, needless to say, did not fly. That was either a bold or a desperate move, and as negotiations drag on this week, it's looking more like desperate.
2. Corporate earnings are slowing. Outside of Apple's blowout results, the earnings season has been lackluster and Amazon's results on Tuesday didn't do much to lift spirits.
3. The Federal Reserve has effectively said, "Houston, we have a problem." Last week's GDP report was an anemic 2.8%, well below historic norms for "recoveries," and certainly not strong enough to make a dent in unemployment or the deficit. In response, Dr. Bernanke and the Fed have said they're going to keep interest rates low for as far as the eye can see, continue with Operation Twist, and even possibly fire up the printing presses again with QE3, QE4, whatever, to keep the economy from sinking back into the abyss of recession and deflation.
4. Tuesday's much cheered ADP report of 170,000 new jobs in January was actually a miss of the expected 182,000 and well below December's reading of 292,000 which was revised downward from the initial estimate of 325,000, so one can only wait to see what Friday's nonfarm payroll report will bring.
5. The bond market is pricing in hard times with near-record low yields, while equities have partied like there's no tomorrow. Only one of these markets can be right, and history falls in favor of the bond market, which is supposed to be the "smarter" of the two. What does the bond market see that equities haven't?
Technical indicators are deteriorating, as well. RSI, MACD R% indicators and many more show signs off weakness.
After a very strong six weeks, we see signs that the bull is tiring.

Tuesday, 31 January 2012

Consumer Confidence Declines

U.S. consumer confidence in January gave back some of the huge gains posted in the previous two months, according to a report released Tuesday. Views on labor markets darkened.
The Conference Board, a private research group, said its index of consumer confidence retreated to 61.1 this month from a revised 64.8 in December, first reported as 64.5. The January index was far less than the 68.0 expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.
The fallback was concentrated in consumers’ view of the current economy. The present situation index, a gauge of consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions, dropped to 38.4 in January from a revised 46.5, originally reported as 46.7.
Consumer expectations for economic activity over the next six months slipped only slightly, to 76.2 in January from a revised 77.0, first reported as 76.4.
“Regarding the short-term outlook, consumers are more upbeat about employment, but less optimistic about business conditions and their income prospects. Recent increases in gasoline prices may have consumers feeling a little less confident this month,” said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center.
Perceptions about the job markets worsened this month. The survey showed 43.5% think jobs are “hard to get” up from 41.6% saying that in December, while only 6.1% think jobs are “plentiful” down from 6.6% in December.

Thursday, 12 January 2012

Larry Williams Forecast 2012 Report

I have just completed my 2012 forecast... it is an exciting one, projecting three major moves this coming yearHere is a hint at two of them:

1) There will be a significant sell off in the first half of the year

2) There will be a very strong rally - before the elections

You are probably wondering how I he does this?  It is simple to explain but not simple to do.  He first determines all of the short-term intermediate and long term cycles in a market then blend these together with the historical very long term cycles.  The result is a road map of what I expect the market to do this coming year.
As you can see the Dow has repeatedly followed the road maps with a good deal of clarity.  That's good news, but the even better news is the same technique can be used on individual commodities and stocks. This is his 7th year of formalizing these forecasts in a report, with an ever increasing readership because they have been correct.

Don't take my word for it. Take my charts, the forecasts I made last year.  See for yourself. Here are the exact forecasts made for Gold, Silver, Copper, RBOB Unleaded Gasoline, Treasury Bonds, and Microsoft for 2011.

Stop being shocked and surprised, and unprepared. Know the future.

All sales will stop on January 20, 2012. After that no copies of the report will be sold. Also note the report is copyrighted and watermarked on every page so you are protected from copyright pirates.


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